Life-n-Loans Blog
Westpac NZ Research (NZ FX & IR Outlook)
| NZ FX & IR Outlook……Imre Speizer |
NZD/USD’s near term momentum remains positive and could rise towards 0.8035 this week. Multi-month, though, we expect the 0.7709 low to be revisited.
NZD/USD Outlook: Neutral this week
Near term momentum remains positive and could rise towards 0.8035 this week. Multi-month, though, we expect the 0.7709 low to be revisited.
The main factor behind near-term NZD/USD strength has been US dollar weakness, and this could persist for the next few weeks. That is because according to our measure of sentiment towards US economic data, a period of disappointments is now likely (Chart 3). At the same time, near term momentum in the NZ economy, which has been very weak recently, is poised to bounce (Chart 2).
Longer term, though, we remain negative NZD/USD, targeting sub-0.77 by early 2015. NZ inflation is currently at the bottom of the RBNZ’s 1%-3% target band, and will probably remain below the 2.0% mid-point until Q3 2015. That will keep the RBNZ on hold until late 2015, weakening interest rate support for the NZD. In addition, the Fed’s eventual tightening cycle will cause US interest rates to rise, benefitting the USD.
Event Risk This Week: RBNZ, FOMC
The NZ data calendar’s key event will be Thursday’s RBNZ meeting – an OCR Review resulting in a one-page press release only. Given last week’s large downside surprise to the RBNZ from Q3 CPI we expect a further dovish shift compared to the September meeting, signalling it’s on hold until evidence of inflation appears. Data releases shouldn’t cause market ripples: business confidence (Wed) and building permits (Fri).
The US data calendar is highly consequential, headlined by the 29 Oct FOMC and advance Q3 GDP.The heavy data schedule also includes Q3 employment cost index, pending home sales, durable goods orders, the Richmond and Chicago business surveys and the Michigan and Conference Board consumer surveys.
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Big changes to interest rate forecasts
Don’t expect to see the Reserve Bank increase the official cash rate this week. However, economists are making significant changes to when they expect the RBNZ will make its next increase and how high it will take the cash rate in this cycle.
The mortgagerates.co.nz survey of economists shows that no one is expecting the Reserve Bank to increase its OCR any time soon, and after last week’s CPI announcement many economists are reviewing their forecasts and pushing out the date of the next increase.
At the time of the previous OCR announcement six weeks ago the general view is that the OCR would stay at its current rate of 3.25% until March next year.
Common Myths about Plaster Cladding
A very good article by my fellow colleague Malcolm Hesseltine….
COMMON MISUNDERSTANDINGS ABOUT LEAKING CLADDING SYSTEMS
Leaking cladding materials are commonly used to describe some monolithic types of cladding’s materials, such as textured fiber cement, EIFS, Solid plaster etc.
We receive phone calls almost every day asking the same question.
“We are interested in a house, but it has got harditex cladding or polystyrene cladding, should we buy it? will it leak?”.
If all leaky buildings are defined based on two types of wall cladding only, then we can simply put a label on each house ‘Leaky’ or ‘non leaky.
Nothing is that simple.
Your inspector should categorize cladding materials as part of a design consideration rather than a separate driven factor causing leaky building syndrome.
Every type of wall cladding has its pros and cons.
As long as the material characteristics are fully taken into consideration during the design stage even paper can be fully watertight.
While doing a cladding inspection, your inspector should identify the type of cladding used.
Then do not make a conclusion it is a leaky or non leaky building, just on the cladding type alone.
Your inspector should carry out a detailed examination about design and construction details based on the type of cladding and other factors
There are problematic building materials but none of them can be categorized as a leaking material in fact any cladding material wrongly used can be problematic
Just because the cladding is direct fixed and not on a cavity can we label it leaky? The answer is NO we can’t.
Never judge a book by its cover until it is inspected.
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